FGE NexantECA sees low odds of U.S.-Iran deal and heightened escalation risk
Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA says the chances of a U.S.-Iran deal are low and the next two months present the greatest escalation risks. Its base case is a limited strike on Iran before January 3, most likely from mid-November to mid-December, potentially lasting up to four weeks. The consultancy expects oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to begin gradually recovering in March 2027, following a resumption of talks in early 2027.