METR estimates Anthropic’s model capability gains have roughly doubled in pace
METR published an assessment estimating that, as of October 2026, Anthropic’s model capabilities on well-defined tasks were improving roughly twice as fast as during March 2024–October 2025. METR stressed substantial uncertainty, saying rates of 1.3 to 3 times the earlier pace would not surprise it, and suggested AI-assisted research likely accounted for most of the acceleration. Anthropic redacted much of the evidence METR considered most persuasive, limiting public scrutiny of its conclusions.